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Skinny Water Stories Thread, Water level dropping. in TribeNwater Fishing Stories; Down below 1.0....Whoooooppeeeee! Water temp dropped about 10 degrees overnight too....
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Old 10-25-2007, 07:46 AM   #1 (permalink)
JRH
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Water level dropping.

Down below 1.0....Whoooooppeeeee!




Water temp dropped about 10 degrees overnight too.
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Old 10-25-2007, 09:07 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Go! Go! Go!
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Old 10-25-2007, 10:45 AM   #3 (permalink)
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I've always meant to comment about that graph...
All it does is measure water flow (in height) coming through Haulover.

While you can extrapolate some data about how high the water may be, there's not really anything to hang your proverbial hat on about it in regards to heights on the flats.

I've found the best way to watch water height down there is to watch the tide heights at Ponce and use simple visual observation. While Mosquito Lagoon doesn't get the generally defined "tides", the winds and current do push the water down there. I notice some people get hung up on the idea that there's no tide whatsoever in ML. Simply ride the current in the ICW down towards George's Bar and you'll see that there is some tide flow. It slacks off at that point, but that extra water keeps building.

During last month and this month are the astronomical highest tides of the year. When the winds starts to move that water around, you get the high water levels we have. It happens every year, no matter what. You can set your calendar to it.

The bad news for lagoon regulars is the high tides around Ponce are over 4' right now. Today and tomorrow are north winds. The water levels are most definitely going to come back up soon.

Last edited by fishinforreal; 10-25-2007 at 10:48 AM.
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Old 10-25-2007, 11:18 AM   #4 (permalink)
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When you fish as regularly as I do, you learn to appreciate both. depending on the time of year.

I like low water because you get lots of tailers and crawlers, a bunch of spots are only accessible to those who know what they are doing and it keeps a lot of people off the flats.

I like high water because you can catch redfish on shorelines, one of my favorite things to do, also it is nice to be able to drive around without worry, and I have a bunch of places I catch reds right now that are normally dry, right Larry!

Nate is right, that is just a flow chart. ML is controlled by ponce.....we have had super high tides and this time of year the water alway comes up, just like it drops in December.

I hope it stays high for a few more weeks....at least until the first real wave of cold fronts comes through with those clear blue skys....This warm weather and clouds is starting to suck!
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Old 10-25-2007, 01:23 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fishinforreal View Post

While you can extrapolate some data about how high the water may be,

As a weekend warrior, "some data" is all I'm looking to extrapolate. I know when that little blue squiggly line is up near 2.0, the water level is gonna be high...when it gets down below 1.0 the water level is gonna be lower.
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Old 10-25-2007, 03:34 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JRH View Post
As a weekend warrior, "some data" is all I'm looking to extrapolate. I know when that little blue squiggly line is up near 2.0, the water level is gonna be high...when it gets down below 1.0 the water level is gonna be lower.
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Old 10-29-2007, 08:00 AM   #7 (permalink)
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So this topic and further conversations really spurred something inside of me to seek more information from the scientific experts. I recently got in touch with Tim Cera, who is a Senior Professional Engineer with the St. Johns River Water Management District. Thanks to Tim for the great info. Here is what he has to say:

"Travis,

I don’t have a publication per se. I gave several presentations about the District’s data collection and modeling efforts in the IRL. My current job has taken me away from the more research and data collection efforts into implementation of projects, but I dug up an old presentation and put it on our ftp site at ftp://ftp.sjrwmd.com/sjrwmd/report/water_level_presentation.ppt. I remember another presentation which I thought was better, but I can’t find it right now. If I do locate it I will forward it to you.

First some definitions. Many people equate ‘tide’ with any water level change. In understanding the IRL and similar systems it is convenient to split up the causes of water level changes. Tide in the way I use the word is the water level change due to the gravitational interaction between the Sun, Moon, and Earth. Meteorological water level changes are caused by wind, barometric changes, temperature,…etc. There are also changes caused by the dynamics of the system, primarily currents

The primary cause of water level change in the lagoon are meteorological and dynamic (current) water level changes in the ocean. I was surprised by this myself. Second cause is dependent on where you are at in the IRL. The tide is eliminated very quickly (within a few kilometers of the inlets) due to the shallowness of the lagoon and the restriction of the inlets. But near the inlets tide is important. Tidal range outside the inlets is about 1.5 meters, inside the inlets about 1 meter, and within 10 kilometers inside the lagoon the tidal range is less than a few centimeters. The last, and most times least, cause of water level change is stormwater runoff.

I have this passion for datums that impel me to expand on Leroy’s discussion of NGVD29 and MSL. NGDV29 was a surface (part of an ellipsoid) covering the continental United States and fit through the zero MSL of 24 long term tide measurement stations. Think of NGVD29 as a balloon that was blown up until it matched the zero MSL at those 24 locations (also a whole bunch of leveling runs between those stations). The zero MSL, on the other hand, is the average of the hourly water level measurements over 19 years at one location. The 19 year requirement is many times relaxed – it is there because there are some lunar tide constituents of 18.6 years, but usually these long term tidal constituents are very small. Note that NGVD29 is fixed in time (1929), but MSL is not. Because NGVD29 was fit through the zero MSL at 24 stations, it is comparable to MSL at many locations for most of the 20th century, but that isn’t a requirement. Water level measurements against NGVD29 can be affected by dredging, shoaling, and sea-level rise, for example, where zero MSL is always the average. The District has measurements of water level against NGVD29 (or any fixed geodetic datum) that show about a 3 millimeter increase in water level per year. If you measure against zero MSL, and update the zero MSL every 19 years, you won’t see an increase, since the zero MSL has ‘risen’ (for lack of a better word) also.

NGVD29 was updated to NAVD88 (North American Vertical Datum, 1988). NAVD88 covers everything that NGVD29 covered along with Alaska, Canada, and Mexico. It is fit through the zero MSL of ONE long term water level station somewhere in Canada. Otherwise the rest of the ‘fit’ to the Earth is through highly detailed leveling measurements. It is far superior to NGVD29 in terms of being able to compare water levels in different locations. In fact, there were certain measurement stations in the District that due to the inaccuracies inherent in NGVD29 would have water flowing the wrong direction. This situation was corrected by re-surveying the stations to NAVD88.


If you have any question of comments I would be glad to help out if I can.


Kindest regards,
Tim Cera, P.E.
Senior Professional Engineer
St. Johns River Water Management District"

Last edited by TroutTouter; 10-29-2007 at 08:03 AM.
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Old 11-02-2007, 02:43 PM   #8 (permalink)
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How's that gauge lookin JRH?
The lagoon is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy up now!!!
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Old 11-02-2007, 03:25 PM   #9 (permalink)
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nice job travis! That feller sounds smart!!
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Last edited by Seek_Hunt386; 11-02-2007 at 03:53 PM.
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Old 11-02-2007, 04:29 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Yeah, its really high after this last blow. Without a doubt ponce inlet directly controls mosquito lagoon.

Ponce tides are as high as I have seen them all year.....I am talking 4' plus tides!

Tuesday should be good!
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